Financial Market Report for the Week Ending September 20, 2013
1) … The possibility of withdrawal of US Central Bank monetary stimulus caused investment growth in the emerging markets to collapse beginning in May 2013.
The global central bank credit bubble, BWX, began to collapse, as bond vigilantes called the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, higher to 2.1% on May 24, 2013, and then to 2.9% on Friday September 13, 2013, on fears of US Fed tapering, with the result that the crack up boom in stocks began to implode; but only reflated with QEternity, on September 18, 2013. The benchmark rate fell to 2.73% the week ending September 20, 2013.
Beginning in May, 2013, investors began to sell mining export nations such as Chile, ECH, and Peru, EPU, Emerging Market Nations, EEM, with high balance of payments, such as Turkey, TUR, Indonesia, IDX, IDXJ, Malaysia, EWM, India, INP, SCIN, Philippines, EPHE, Thailand, THD, and New Zealand, ENZL, as well as interest rate sensitive stocks such Homebuilding Stocks, ITB, Utility Stocks, XLU, and Real Estate Stocks, IYR, such as REM, ROOF, REZ, FNIO.
Bloomberg reports on the collapse of state owned banking in India. Record Rout in Government Banks as Buffers Drop: Corporate India. Shares of India’s state-run banks are trading near record-low valuations as concern grows about narrowing risk buffers and rising bad loans. Indian Bank, United Bank (UNTDB) of India Ltd. and Union Bank of India, have fallen more than 55 percent this year to Sept. 12, the most among the nine government banks that are leading declines for India’s 40 bank stocks. Shares of the nine lenders are all trading below the value of their assets amid lower-than-average capital adequacy levels and bad loan ratios that are about double those of private-sector lenders.
Brand names disappear from the retail shelves when the balance of payments issue becomes extreme as Francisco Toro of Caracas Chronicles reports Keep walking…right over the BoP cliff-edge. Been having trouble shaking that end-of-times feeling over the looping Balance of Payments cliff-edge? Here’s some confirmation-bias catnip for you from Confirmando.com Faced with an acute shortage of dollars and no end-in-sight, the unthinkable has now happened: licquor stores in Caracas have started rationing the sale of Scotch. “No hay garantía de inventarios para el mes de mayor demanda como es diciembre y ha obligado a imponer una especie de racionamiento. ‘Vendemos solo 4 botellas de Old Parr, Buchanan’s o Etiqueta Negra 12 años’, apunta una de las promotoras de la tienda de Licores Mundial en la urbanización Las Mercedes.Una situación similar ocurre en las licorerías de varios supermercados en Caracas, donde se prohibió la venta de cajas de 12 botellas de estas marcas y sólo se acepta un máximo de 3 unidades. Frente al alza del precio y la limitación en la venta, hay consumidores que optan por migrar a otras marcas, pero no abandonan su hábito por el escocés. Fin. Du. Monde”!
Francisco Toro of Caracas Chronicles writes Occam’s razor on sabotage. Willie Neuman’s piece in the New York Times on Maduro’s sabotage-obsession is a pretty good primer for people who haven’t been following the story. It bothers me a bit, though, that he barely mentions, in passing, the government’s obvious political rationale for making up outlandish tales that have no evidence to back them: deflecting blame for its own appalling record of neglect over the nation’s infrastructure. To Venezuelans with dos dedos de frente, this is obvious, but perhaps it is less so for Willie’s readers stateside: the maintenance culture inside Pdvsa and Corpoelec has frayed badly over the last 15 years, leaving a brittle infrastructure that’s given rise to an appalling industrial safety record. At Corpoelec in particular, efforts to face up to the crisis have taken the form of a loosening of safeguards against corruption, leading to the Bolichicos scandals we’re all too familiar with. So not only does the National Grid suck, the billions spent to fix it are being looted.
2) … A disavowment of a Chinese taper stimulated Chinese stocks to rally beginning July 2013.
Tyler Durden writes in Zero Hedge China: No Leverage, No Growth. When it comes to the very simplest axiom on modern Keynesian economics, it seems one can’t repeat it enough times: have leverage, have growth … don’t have leverage, don’t have growth.
That is the main reason why in lieu of any organic credit growth (total consumer bank loans and leases now are still below the level when Lehman filed), it has been up to the Fed to step up and provide “leverage” into the system, in the form of excess reserves, resulting in $2.5 trillion in excess deposits over loans, or just the void filled by the Fed’s printing of lower powered money. That is also the reason why in early summer, China tried to conduct a mini-taper of its own to streamline its monetary pipeline which had been so filled with bad and non-performing credit, that the PBOC effectively pulled the switch on new liquidity for over a month.
What happened almost immediately after, when rates on ultra short term funding soared to 20%+, nearly destroyed the domestic banking system and resulted in a major slowdown in the Chinese economy. “Luckily” for China, its close encounter with the taper was brief, if quite painful, and following a period of shock, the Chinese central bank had no choice but to resume injecting banks with their daily dose of monetary morphine all over again.
This in turn, has brought us to square one: nothing in the local banking system has been fixed, and what’s worse, while China has bought itself a few months respite, the dominant old problem of a collapsing credit impulse, as described before, in the country with the largest corporate credit bubble in the world, is about to come back with a bang in a few short months. In short: China just did what the US has boldly done so many times before kicked the can.
NidStyles comments On December 1913, when the monetary system was fraudulently changed into a debt based fractional reserve monetary system through the creation of the Federal Reserve. Since then, there can be no economic growth without credit growth. Economic growth is tied up to credit growth. If the overall debt of the system was to be reduced then the entire system would collapse into a deflationary death spiral. For this reason, no government in this fiat based currency world should have a balanced budget. They all have to keep a certain amount yearly growth of their national debt. The EU for example is aiming at a yearly growing debt rate of 3% of GDP for each Euro Zone country (they are still far from it though). And Tabarnaque commentsI was about to forget. In case you haven’t seen this classic Youtube Video Money as debt. This is a must be seen in order to understand the monetary system we live in.
Investors bought China’s kicking the can credit rally, from Mid June 2013 to September 13, 2013, as is seen in the ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart of China Financials, CHIX, China YAO, China Industrials, CHII, China Mining, CHIM, and China Real Estate, TAO, providing investment gains of 20%, in just three months; as well as similar gains in Industrial Mining Stocks, PICK, such as RIO, Steel Mining, SLX, such as MT, GSM, as well as in Asia Regional Stocks, Australia Small Caps, KROO, Australia Bank WBK, New Zealand, ENZL, South Korea, EWY, as well as in Distant Regional Stocks, Egypt, EGPT, South Africa, EZA, Argentina, ARGT, as well as in Shipping Stocks, SEA, seen in this Finviz Screener. These stock investments are ready to implode.
In early September, China, YAO, Finland, EFNL, Shipping, SEA, Solar, TAN, Biotechnology, IBB, Casinos and Resorts, BJK, Semiconductors, SMH, Internet Retail, FDN, Design Build, FLM, Internet Retail, FDN, Small Cap Industrial, PSCI, Automobiles, CARZ, S&P High Beta, SPHB, and Paper Producers, WOOD, such as TIS, SWM, KS, SEE, PKG, GPK and IP, seen in this ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart have outperformed and are primed for a great fall.
3) … Nation investment soared the week ending September 20, 2013, on confirmation of QEternity
On Monday September 16, 2013, Stocks rally, dollar dips as Summers quits Fed race. Marc Jones of Reuters reports that investors wagered that U.S. monetary policy would stay easier for longer should the other leading candidate for Fed chair, Janet Yellen, get the job. Markets had perceived Summers as less wedded to aggressive policies such as quantitative easing and more likely to scale stimulus back quickly than Yellen, who is currently second in command at the Fed.
Nation Investment, EFA, and Small Cap Nation Investment, IFSM, traded to new rally highs.
The Eurozone, EZU, and the traded to a new rally high, as Italy, EWI, Netherlands, EWN, Spain, EWP, Italy, EWI, Ireland, EIRL, Greece, GREK, and Germany, EWG, EWGS, traded higher.
US Stocks, VTI, traded to a new rally high.
Asia Excluding Japan, EPP, traded to a new rally high.
World stocks, VT, and Global Industrial Producers, FXR, rose to a new rally high.
Sectors trading higher included Paper Producers, WOOD, Solar, TAN, Design Build, FLM, Gaming, BJK, Automobiles, CARZ, Inverse Volatility, XIV.
Filled black candlesticks formed in a number of stock charts such as SPY, IWM, FXI, EZU, EUFN, SMH, IBB, KROO, SPHB, XTN, YAO, PSP, and RXI, as well as the Euro, FXE, foreshadowing a market reversal.
Yahoo Finance chart shows the EUR/JPY closed at 132.26.
The US Dollar, $USD, traded lower, as the Indian Rupe, ICN, the Swedish Krona, FXS, and the Australian Dollar, FXA, and the Euro, FXE, traded higher.
The Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, traded lower to 2.87%.
Oil, USO, traded 1.9% lower.
The Gold ETF, GLD, traded 1.1% lower as Spot Gold, $GOLD, traded lower to $1313.
On Tuesday, September 17, 2013, Volatility, XVZ, and the US Dollar, $USD, traded lower, as World Stocks, VT, traded slightly higher, ahead of FOMC Day. Reuters reports Wall Street ends up amid Fed talks; Nasdaq logs best close in 13 years. US Stocks, VTI, rose on Tuesday on expectations the Federal Reserve will make only modest changes to a monetary policy that has been highly supportive of stocks and other assets.
Gold Mining Stocks, GDX, such as those seen in this Finviz Screener, traded higher, on a slight rise in the price of the Gold ETF, GLD; the internals of their chart patterns suggest that their direction is going higher once again.
Australia’s Westpac banking, WBK, led New Zealand, ENZL, Australia, EWA, and Asia Excluding Japan, EPP, higher, while Shanghai, CAF, led China Industrials, CHII, Indonesia, IDX, and Indonesia Small Caps, IDXX, lower. German Small Cap Stocks, GERJ, and Greece, GREK, led the Eurozone, EZU, slightly higher.
Sectors trading higher included, Inverse Volatility, XIV, Nasdaq Internet, PNQI, IPOs, FPX, Networking, IGN, Retail, XRT, such as RAD, KR, TJX, Semiconductors, SMH, Consumer Services, IYC, Internet Retail, FDN, Small Cap Pure Value, RZV, Stockbrokers, IAI, and Aerospace and Defense, PPA. Regional Bands, KRE, traded higher. Energy Production, XOP, and Small Cap Energy, PSCE, traded higher despite a trade lower in Oil, USO.
Credit Provider MasterCard, MA, rose strongly, and Delta Airlines, DAL, rose strongly on recent announcement that it will join the S&P 500.
The Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, traded lower to 2.85%.
On Wednesday September 18, 2013, Wall Street ends at record, Fed maintains stimulus US stocks rallied to record highs on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve surprised investors and decided against trimming its bond-buying stimulus program, which has fueled Wall Street’s rally of more, Reuters reports. Volatility, XVZ, traded strongly lower. The US Dollar, $USD, traded strongly lower to close at 80.23. Major World Currencies, Brazilian Real, BZF, Indian Rupe, ICN, Australian Dollar, FXA, Swedish Krona, FXS, Swiss Franc, FXF, British Pound Sterling, FXB, and the Euro, FXE, as well as Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, all rose strongly.
Spot Gold, $GOLD, rose 4.2% to close at $1,365. The Gold, ETF, GLD, rose 4.4%, and the Silver ETF, Silver, SLV, 6.4%, taking Gold Miners, GDX, 8.9%, and Silver Miners, SIL, 11.0%, higher. Oil, USO, rose 2.5%.
In what amounts to debt monetization, that is free money for investors, World Stocks, VT, rose 2.0%, Nation Investment, EFA, 2.7% … Emerging Markets, EEM, 4.2% … The BRICS, EEB, 3.2%, with INP 5.3, EWZ 5.1, RSX 4.9, YAO, 1.7 … Asia Excluding Japan, EPP, 2.6%, with, IDX, 8.6, EPHE 7.2, THD 5.9, TUR 5.6, EWM 4.6, ENZL, 2.2 … Others with ECH, 5.3, EZA 4.6, ARGT 4.5, EWY 4.1 … The Eurozone, EZU, 2.6%, with EWP, 3.8, EFNL, 3.4, EWI, 3.3, GREK, 2.8, EWG, 2.6, EIRL 2.2, EWN 2.2, EWGS, 1.7 … US Stocks, VTI, 1.2%, with SPY 1.2, QQQ 1.2% with sectors Home Building, ITB 4.8%, Inverse Volatility, XIV 3.7, Coal Miners, KOL 3.7, Industrial Miners, PICK 3.2, China Industrials, CHII 3.2, Solar Stocks, TAN 2.9, Steel Producers, SLX 2.9.
Investors have been clamoring for Growth Stocks, Large Cap Growth, JKE, and Small Cap Pure Growth, RZG, have been outperforming their peers, Large Cap Value, JKF, and Small Cap Pure Value, RZV, as is seen in their combined ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart
Aggregate Credit, AGG, rose strongly as the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, traded lower to close at 2.71%, as the Father of QE, Ben Bernanke, called for ongoing monetary intervention.
The apostle of QE Unlimited, a promise to buy assets every month until conditions improve, Dr. Marc Faber, and investment newsletter publisher of The Gloom Boom & Doom Report, posts in Zero Hedge My view was that they would taper by about $10 billion to $15 billion, but I’m not surprised that they don’t do it for the simple reason that I think we are in QE Unlimited. The Fed will continue to print and if the stock market goes down 10%, they will print even more. And they don’t know anything else to do. And quite frankly, they have boxed themselves into a corner where they are now kind of desperate. The endgame is a total collapse, but from a higher diving board now. Wikipedia relates He correctly predicted QE to infinity. And On March 27, 2013 Faber said that the U.S. is creating “nowhere to hide” bubbles in many emerging economies such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand (up four times from 2009 lows).
I comment that when one can not go left or right, and when one can not go up or down, then all one can do is go further in at an accelerated rate. which will result in total destruction known as supernova, in this case Financial Armageddon, a global credit bust and worldwide financial system breakdown, that is foretold in Bible Prophecy of Revelation 13:3-4.
Benson te writes Inflationism represents just one of the many slippery slope towards more interventionism (price controls, foreign exchange and capital controls, wage and labor controls, trade controls, border controls and more) and even risks of wars.
And Benson te also writes Poker bluff called: US Federal Reserve balks at taper. I have been saying so. The supposed taper talk, like all the rest of “exit” talks since 2010, has all been but a poker bluff.
Given the entrenched dependency relationship by the mortgage markets and by the US government on the US Federal Reserve, the Fed’s QE program can be interpreted as a quasi-fiscal policy whose major beneficiaries have been the political class and the banking class. Thus, there will be little incentives for FED officials to downsize the FED’s actions, unless forced upon by the markets. Since politicians are key beneficiaries from such programs, Fed officials will be subject to political pressures.
This is why I think the “taper talk” represents just one of the FED’s serial poker bluffs. The US Federal Reserve called the bluff. The FOMC announced that they will refrain from tapering until supposed evidence will warrant it.
The global system has been acutely hooked on steroids which will only be given up when forced upon by the markets. Such dependency will even be more entrenched.
Such actions by the FED also runs in contradiction to supposed claims of economic recovery as the Zero Hedge rightly observed. It seems the Fed is so scared about something (despite every long-only asset manager telling us day after day that the economy is recovering and the US doesn’t need crisis support… oh and can withstand higher rates) that they have gone against consensus and decided that Tapering now is premature.
FED policy represents a subsidy or transfer of resources to Wall Street and the government diverted from the main street, the economy will hardly post a robust real recovery. And worse, such transfers encourage malinvestments and consumption of capital.
Naturally markets addicted to the FED steroids went into a bacchanalia. The markets has turned into a full Risk ON mode. The taper bluff reinforces the record run for the S&P 500.
QEternity in September 2012 had a 3 month effect of the tempering of bond yields. Confirmation of QEternity will have a shorter duration of impact. In other words, the bond vigilantes will be having a short vacation but they will back soon, perhaps in less than a month.
Back in August PBS Holdings wrote Emerging markets want QEternity. Over the past few years, QEternity is the humorous moniker that’s been used to describe the Federal Reserve’s seemingly never ending monetary stimulus. But the beginning of the end of QE and one of the most liberal monetary experiments in human history is nigh.
Central banks from emerging market countries like Brazil, India,Indonesia, and Turkey, are already taking aggressive steps to prepare for massive capital outflows ahead of the Fed’s decelerated asset purchases.
But as money flows away from emerging economies back into to developed countries, funding future economic growth and servicing debt becomes more difficult. Also, there’s the problem of containing inflation, which is still too high in BRIC nations like Brazil and India.
Emerging markets have been among the greatest beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve’s five-year easy money cycle. Essentially, Bernanke & Co. encouraged the “risk-on” trade of owning riskier assets by pushing investors out of low-yielding “safe” assets.
On Wednesday September 18, 2013, a QEternity rally drove the Emerging Market Stocks which had sold off, strongly higher, as is seen in the combined ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart of New Zealand, ENZL, Chile, ECH, Malaysia, EWM, India, INP, and especially thailand, THD, Philippines, EPHE, Turkey, TUR, and Indonesia, IDX, with the latter recovering 20% from their sell off lows.
Mike Mish Shedlock writes One sided risk assessment. The Fed sees risks all the time. But it’s all one-sided. The Fed never sees risk in tightening too little. The Fed always sees risks in tightening too much. The result is a series of bubbles of ever-increasing amplitude.
And Mike Mish Shedlock writes Let’s see how long this rally in emerging market currencies lasts. I suspect not long. Brazilian state development bank president Luciano Coutinho who expects currency volatility to increase because the Fed didn’t start tapering. “For us, the sooner it starts and ends, the better. I would rather see it start today and have some date to finish because then we will feel the whole impact. The worst thing is the uncertainty.” And Bloomberg reports One-hundred-year bond wipeout in Mexico triggered by Fed.
Back in July Wall Street Fool wrote Home builders about to feel the wrath of The Titans. The FED tapering its QEternity Program, is probably the single worst news for Home Builders Stocks.
QEternity rallied Home Builders, ITB, more than any other sector.
On Thursday September 19, 2013, Stocks soared In overnight trading. Benson te writes Asian markets jump on the FED’s QE extension. The reality is that all these stock market-currency market movements have been representative of the pricing of distortions brought about by FED and other central bank policies that has nurtured the market’s addiction to low interest rates environment and the subsequent credit fueled asset boom that has largely little to do with “fundamentals” or the real economy. Europe’s parallel universe should be a prime example. What really has been a bubble has been misconstrued as a boom. Eventually booms end up in busts and crises as have been through history.
And in overnight trading, AP reports Fed shock sweeps through financial markets. Global stocks surge after Fed maintains stimulus in surprise move. The response in financial markets was immediate, tocks around the world surged, with the major U.S. indexes and Germany’s DAX striking record highs, while the dollar and U.S. government bond yields were pummeled. Commodities, such as oil and gold, were also in demand as were financial assets in many emerging markets as much of the money generated by the stimulus over the years has been invested around the globe to seek potentially higher returns. “Given the extreme moves in financial markets overnight and this morning, some participants have been on the receiving end of a short and sharp lesson on the dangers of attempting to second guess the U.S. Federal Reserve,” said Brenda Kelly, senior market strategist at IG.
Volatility, XVZ, traded slightly higher. AP reports Dow, S&P End Lower After Record-Setting Run; Groupon, GRPN, Tesla, TSLA, Spike after record setting rally. Rite Aid, RAD, spiked higher as well.
Global Producers, FXR, trading higher included TWX, ETN, FLS, ROK, SNA, CIR, ITT, DOV, and JBT.
Eurozone Stocks, EZU, trading higher included TS, ASML, and CRH.
Japanese Stocks, EWJ, trading higher included IX.
US Regional Banks, KRE, such as RF, STI, HBAN, SNV, traded lower. Global Banks such as LBCS, YG, RBS, SAN, and IBN, HDB, and BPOP traded lower as well. European Financials, EUFN, traded lower. Emerging Market Financials, EMFN, blasted higher, reflecting yesterday’s rally.
Nations trading lower included South Africa, EZA, Russia, RSX, ERUS, Australia, EWA, and the Philippines, EPHE. Nations trading higher included Turkey, TUR, and Thailand, THD. Sectors trading lower included Health Care Providers, IHF, Home Building, ITB, and Leveraged Buyouts, PSP, as well as Gold Miners, GDX, and Silver Miners, SIL.
The chart of the US Dollar, $USD, shows a slightly higher close at $80.50. The Chinese Yuan, CYB, as well as Major World Currencies, DBV, Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, traded slightly higher to a rally highs; these are now primed for a competitive currency devaluation at the hand of currency traders as investors derisk and deleverage out of World Stocks, VT.
Yahoo Finance reports that EUR/JPY blasted higher to close at 134.5 but below its recent high of 135, as the Euro, FXE, closed at 133.87, and the Japanese Yen, FXY, shows close lower at 98.41. The Stockcharts.com chart of EURJPY shows what may turn out to be a dark cloud covering evening star candlestick, communicating an end to Liberalism’s carry trade investing.
The Stockcharts.com charts of World Stocks relative to Aggregate Credit, VT:AGG, Nation Investment relative to World Government Treaury Bonds, EFA:BWX, and Eurozone Stocks relative to EU Deb, EZU:EU, communicate the end of Liberalism’s credit induced speculative leveraged invesing, as well as the achievement of peak wealth: Liberalism’s fiat wealth system is at its zenith
The Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, traded slightly higher to close at 2.75%.
Business Insider reports BlackBerry Plans To Fire Up To 5,000 Employees.
Robert Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal writes White House signals “Yale School” Yellen will be nominee for Fed Chief. For the record, Yellen comes out of the “Yale school” of Keynesian macroeconomics. Her dissertation adviser was the Keynesian James Tobin. Tobin was a huge advocate of using government intervention to stabilize financial markets
CNBC reports Eurozone’s North South divide to widen further. Economic differences between the euro zone’s core and periphery are their most marked in over 10 years, according to a new report, and look set to widen as the region’s nascent recovery takes hold.
Professional services firm Ernst and Young (EY) said that euro zone countries were now at their most economically divergent since the early 2000s, according to its “convergence indicator,” which takes into account variables including gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment rates and government balances.
The gap can been seen in terms of growth – Germany’s economy expanded by 0.7 percent in the second quarter of this year, but the economies of a number of countries, such as Spain and Italy, continued to shrink – as well across lending and employment.
“Sharp differences in financing conditions and labor market developments will maintain stark divergence between euro zone countries,” according to the Eurozone Forecast, published on Thursday. “This poses a threat to efficient decision-making and further economic integration – both of which are necessary to ensure the eurozone’s stability.”
EY said it expected unemployment in the region to continue to rise, peaking at 12.6 percent in the middle of next year, and warned that the “substantial divergence” in unemployment rates across the continent would persist. It said it expected joblessness in Spain and Greece to peak at 27.6 percent and 29 percent respectively in 2014 – while Germany’s will be remain substantially lower at 5.4 percent.
On Friday September 20, 2013, Volatility, XVZ, rose, as the US Dollar, $USD, rose slightly to close at 80.56. The Market Off ETN, OFF, rose in value. Currency Carry Trades unwound worldwide with the Japanese Yen, FXY, trading higher and individual currencies such as the India Rupe, ICN, and the Euro, FXE, trading lower. Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, traded lower, causing investors to derisk and deleverage out of World Stocks, VT, and Global Industrial Producers, FXR, such as Boeing, BA.
Masaki Kondo, Mariko Ishikawa and John Detrixhe of Bloomberg report Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s surprise decision yesterday to refrain from reducing the central bank’s unprecedented stimulus threatens one of the surest bets in currency markets this year. Traders borrowing funds in Japanese yen and using the proceeds to buy dollars earned an annualized 21% this year through Sept. 17, a record based on data compiled by Bloomberg back to 1990.
Nation Investment, EFA, traded lower, with the Emerging Markets, EEM, and Asia Excluding Japan, EPP, leading, the way lower. South Africa, India, INP, Thailand, THD, The Philippines, EPHE, Turkey, TUR, and Chile, ECH, traded lower.
India Banks, EPI, such as IBN and HDB, led India, INP, and the Emerging Market Financials, EMFN, lower.
The National Bank of Greece, NBG, Ireland’s IRE, and Germany’s DB, led Greece, GREK, Ireland, EIRL, and the European Financials, EUFN, lower.
China’s SHG, and China Financials, CHIX, led China, YAO, and Far East Financials, FEFN, lower.
Interest Rate Sensitive Stocks, that is Leveraged Buyouts, PSP, Home Builders, ITB, Utilities, XLU, Global Utilities, DBU, Real Estate, IYR, and Global Real Estate, DRW, traded lower.
Sectors trading lower included Aerospace, PPA, Paper Producers, WOOD, and Automobiles, CARZ.
Metal Manufacturing, XME, was led lower by Coal Miners, KOL, Industrial Miners, PICK, and Steel Producers, SLX.
Gold, GLD, and Silver, SLV, traded lower, forcing Junior Gold Mines, GDXJ, Gold Miners, GDX, Junior Silver Miners, SILJ, and Silver Miners, SIL, lower.
Aggregate Credit, AGG, traded unchanged, as the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, traded lower to close the week at 2.73%.
Summary of this financial market trading for the week ending May 20, 2013.
Liberalism achieved peak prosperity on a non taper rally. On going monetization of debt, specifically Ben Bernanke’s call for no tapering, that is for QEternity, made for a sell of the US Dollar, $USD, which closed the week down 1.2% at 80.56, and propelled Nation Investment, EFA, 2.2%, World Stocks, VT, 1.6%, Global Producers, FXR, 1.4%, US Stocks, VTI, 1.3%, and the S&P 500, SPY, 0.8%, to new all time highs.
Sectors rising this week included Solar Stocks, TAN, 3.8%, Nasdaq Internet, 3.6%, Home Builders, ITB, 3.0%, Small Cap Pure Value, RZV, 2.4%, Casinos and Resorts, 2.2% higher. Global Real Estate, DRW, popped 3.9%, higher.
The Eurozone, EZU, rose 3.1%, to a new rally high, as Italy, EWI, rose 3.8%, Spain, EWP, 3.6%, Germany, EWG, 3.3%, and Ireland, Ireland, EIRL 3.2%, and Finland, EFNL, 3.0%.
Asia Excluding Japan, EPP, rose 2.5%, to a new rally high, as THD, rose, 6.7%, IDX 5.6%, New Zealand, ENZL, 4.4%, EWM 4.1%, and the Philippines, EPHE, 3.8%.
Emerging Markets, EEM, rose 2.2%, to a new rally high, as Turkey, TUR, rose, 9.5%, Chile, ECH 4.9%, Argentina, ARGT, 4.7%.
US Stocks, VTI, rose 1.4%, and the S&P 500, SPY, 0.8%, both to new all time highs, with the chart of the S&P 500, $SPX, showing a rise of 1.3% to its new all time high.
Doug Noland reports Last week set an all-time weekly record for corporate debt issuance. The year is on track for record junk bond issuance and on near-record pace for overall corporate debt issuance. At 350 bps, junk bond spreads are near 5-year lows (5-yr avg. 655bps). At about 70 bps, investment grade Credit spreads closed Thursday at the lowest level since 2007 (5-yr avg. 114bps). It is a huge year for M&A. And with the return of “cov-lite” and abundant cheap finance for leveraged lending generally, U.S. corporate debt markets are screaming the opposite of tightening.
August existing home sales were the strongest since February 2007. National home prices are now rising at double-digit rates. An increasing number of local markets certainly including many in California are showing signs of overheating. Prices at the upper-end in many markets are back to all-time highs. And despite a backup in mortgage borrowing costs from record lows, housing markets have yet to indicate a tightening of Financial Conditions. Clearly benefiting from loose lending conditions, August auto sales were the strongest since 2006.
Anna-Louise Jackson and Anthony Feld of Bloomberg reports More Americans took to the water in new boats this summer, often buying smaller, less expensive models, as the industry is showing signs of a recovery. Purchases of powerboats, which include yachts, pontoons and fishing vessels, rose 18.9% in July from a year earlier, according to Statistical Survey.
Lisa Abramowicz of Bloomberg reports America’s companies, from Apple to Verizon, are saving about $700 billion in interest payments with the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented stimulus. Corporate bond yields over the past four years have fallen to an average of 4.6% from 6.14% in the five years before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s demise, a savings equal to $15.4 million annually per every $1 billion borrowed. Businesses took advantage of the Fed’s largesse to lock in record low rates, extend maturities and raise cash by selling $5.16 trillion of bonds. ‘The stimulus was a huge saving grace in the economy overall,’ said J. Michael Schlotman, the chief financial officer at Kroger. The grocery store operator that estimates it’s paying about $80 million less in interest than it would have pre-crisis.
I comment that the Fed’s ongoing stimulus has created unprecented inflation in the most debt ridden of stocks such as Kroger, KR, whose stock value has more than doubled since November 2011.
The 37 ETFs seen in this Finviz Screener, have risen strongly under US Fed relentless QE monetary policy, and are poised to fall strongly lower on the exhaustion of the US Fed’s and world central bank’s monetary authority, that is as bond vigilantes, begin calling the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, ^TNX, higher from 2.75%, and currency traders once again, begin selling Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, these are XIV, FDN, CARZ, PBS, IBB, RZV, PSCI, FPX, IAI, XTN, SMH, XRT, PJP, PSP, TAN, RXI, FLM, EIRL, WOOD, EUFN, RWW, FXR, BJK, PBJ, EFNL, YAO, PPA, PNQI, EZA, KROO, ARGT, EWY, GNW
Jim Sinclair writes of the Wednesday September 17, 2013, money printing operation by the US Federal Reserve in article QE to infinity. QE is in fact debt monetization but central banks do not want to call it that because the historical and traditional understanding of debt monetization is and will in time follows.
I comment that a re-monetization of the world’s only debt-free money, that being gold, is underway. And that the chart of the Gold ETF, GLD, shows that it entered an Elliott Wave 3 up with a 4.4% rise on Wednesday, September 17, 2013; these are the most powerful of all economic waves, generating the bulk of wealth gains.
Jesus Christ has always been at the helm of the economy of God, Ephesians 1:10, operating in dispensation, that is in active oversight of human economic and political endeavors, for the fulfillment of every age, epoch, era and time period.
Under his administration the fiat wealth of liberalism has been surging ever higher. With Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke affirming QEternity; it’s provision constitutes passing the Rubicon of sound monetary policy, as evidenced by the trade lower in World Stocks, VT, on Friday September 20, 2013 manifesting as Liberalism’s fated day of instability, with the Market Off ETN, OFF, and Volatility, XVZ, as well as TVIX, VIXY, and VIXM, rising in value. Peak Prosperity has come via a policy of investment choice in the moral hazard based fiat money system, which is based on schemes of credit and carry trade investing, all designed for investment gain.
Nikolaj Gammeltoft and Cecile Vannucci of Bloomberg report The next drop in U.S. equities may spur a bigger jump in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index as investors rush to cover their record bets against the gauge, according to Societe Generale SA. Hedge funds and other large speculators have more than doubled short positions on VIX futures to 189,020 contracts since the end of June. This year’s rally in U.S. stocks has led to a 19% plunge in the VIX, creating profitable strategies to bet against volatility futures. A decline in equities and subsequent increase in share-price swings would bring losses for VIX short sellers, which may drive them to cover the trades, according to Ramon Verastegui of Societe Generale. Increased demand for the contracts will push volatility higher and may exacerbate the stock-market selloff, he said. ‘The concentrated short in the VIX futures is like a red point if you look at a map of the market, signaling potential risk,’ Verastegui, head of engineering and strategy at the French bank, said. ‘A short squeeze in the VIX will have an impact on the volatility market and that can spill over into other markets, accelerating a move down in the S&P.’
The zenith of liberalism was foretold in the statue of empires, as foretold in Bible prophecy of Daniel 2:25-45, where two iron legs of hegemonic power, would rise to rule the world, these being the British Empire, and the US Dollar Hegemonic Empire, only to experience dissolution into an unstable mixture of ten toes of iron diktat and clay democracy, that is ten zones of regional governance and totalitarian collectivism, this being confirmed by the rise of the Beast Regime of Revelation 13:1-4, to replace liberalism’s Banker Regime. God’s idea of economy has been, is now, and will ever be one of empire. The Libertarian dream of freedom, and free things like “free prices” for labor, for example, is an illusion on both the liberalism as well as authoritarianism “desert of the real”.
Under authoritarianism, the schemes of debt servitude schemes, are the order of the day and include such things as regional framework agreements, bank deposits bailins, new taxes, privatizations, capital controls, austerity measures, and statist vitalizations where banks and other corporations are given charter to operate as public private partnerships for regional economic security, regional stability and regional sustainability; all of which enforces austerity.
The details of the US Hegemonic Empire are provided by Robert Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal in the post of Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr. article Who are the champions of the common man?
As the country at large endures great economic distress, civilian employment has skyrocketed in Washington, DC, where the average federal worker earns more than double the salary of the average worker in the private sector. The parasite-host relationship that exists between the ruling few and the toiling many is rarely so stark.
It’s no coincidence that Murray Rothbard, was also a pioneer in power-elite analysis. For instance, Rothbard’s essay “Wall Street, Banks, and American Foreign Policy,” published as a small book by the Center for Libertarian Studies, proposes that there might be a teensy bit more to American foreign policy than a disinterested dedication to promoting “democracy.”
Consider just a few paragraphs:
A glance at foreign policy leaders since World War II will reveal the domination of the banker elite. Truman’s first Secretary of Defense was James V. Forrestal, former president of the investment-banking firm of Dillon, Read & Co., closely allied to the Rockefeller financial group. Forrestal had also been a board member of the Chase Securities Corporation, an affiliate of the Chase National Bank.
Another Truman Defense Secretary was Robert A. Lovett, a partner of the powerful New York investment-banking house of Brown Brothers Harriman. At the same time that he was Secretary of Defense, Lovett continued to be a trustee of the Rockefeller Foundation. Secretary of the Air Force Thomas K. Finletter was a top Wall Street corporate lawyer and member of the board of the CFR while serving in the cabinet. Ambassador to Soviet Russia, Ambassador to Great Britain, and Secretary of Commerce in the Truman Administration was the powerful multi-millionaire W. Averell Harriman, an often underrated but dominant force within the Democratic Party since the days of FDR. Harriman was a partner of Brown Brothers Harriman.
Also Ambassador to Great Britain under Truman was Lewis W. Douglas, brother-in-law of John J. McCloy, a trustee of the Rockefeller Foundation, and a board member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Following Douglas as Ambassador to the Court of St. James was Walter S. Gifford, chairman of the board of AT&T, and member of the board of trustees of the Rockefeller Foundation for almost two decades. Ambassador to NATO under Truman was William H. Draper, Jr., vice-president of Dillon, Read & Co.
That’s just half of Rothbard’s analysis of the power elite surrounding just one president’s foreign policy team.
Who has benefited from the American warfare state? Who, that is, apart from those with political connections or government jobs? The question answers itself. Everyone else has suffered from the trillions of dollars looted from them so the Pentagon might have the power to obliterate every conceivable enemy city a dozen times over. We have suffered from increased indebtedness, and – because capital formation is undermined by the squandering of resources in war and in massive diversion of resources to the military sector – lower real wages than we would otherwise have enjoyed. We’ve suffered from the civilian research and development that never occurred because the brains behind it were siphoned into military research. The costs go on and on.
Who angled for the Federal Reserve? The American public, or the bankers themselves? Anyone reading Rothbard knows the answer. It is not reasonable to expect us to believe that in just this one case, an interest group coming together to enshrine its preferences in law was doing so entirely for the public welfare.
The Fed, meanwhile, has not “stabilized the economy,” contrary to the usual propaganda, and in recent years gave rise to a housing bubble that wrecked the finances of a great many ordinary Americans. Then, adding insult to injury, it bailed out – on preposterous and indefensible grounds – some of the most reckless and irresponsible institutions.
What has the Fed’s economic planning accomplished for Main Street? The Fed’s planning, according to David Stockman, was based on the “wealth effect”: if the Fed pushed stock prices higher, Americans would feel wealthier and would be likely to spend and borrow more, thereby stimulating economic activity.
The results? Zero net breadwinner jobs created between early 2000 and early 2007. From 2000 to 2012, there have been 18,000 new jobs created each month. That’s about one-eighth of the growth in the labor force over the same period.This is what the average person is supposed to be so grateful for?
The state, in short, enriches itself at the expense of the public it fleeces, all the while using its influence over education, the media, and culture to persuade the people that all this fleecing is good for them, that taxes are donations, and that bombing foreigners on ludicrous pretexts is “serving your country.” It urges the general public to consider the absence of the state as the most horrifying, inconceivable scenario of all.
The libertarian tears off the mask of the state, revealing it as the wealth-destroying, poverty-enhancing instrument of terror and expropriation it is. The advances that constitute civilization, libertarians argue, have resulted not from the orders of hangmen and other executioners, or the social planning of bureaucrats and academics, but from human beings cooperating voluntarily in ways that will amaze and astonish anyone who opens his eyes to see them.
And that makes libertarianism the most liberating political philosophy of all.
In rebuttal to Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr, I state that God, and His Son Jesus Christ are sovereign over all; that there are no sovereign individuals, and that there is no human action, as there is only the dispensation of Jesus Christ, Ephesians 1:10, in all things, and that it is Jesus Christ who appoints power structures under both liberalism as well as under authoritarianism. God operates in empires; always has, and always will. He has a King, that being Jesus Christ, and a Kingdom, and it is coming by the Revelation of Jesus Christ, Revelation 1:1, where we are witnessing “those things which must shortly come to pass”, before it begins as the 1000 year rule and reign of Jesus Christ on planet earth.
I’m rejoicing because I know the truth, and it has set me free from the deception of human philosophy of Libertarianism, which is simply just another experience in will worship, that is the worship of human things desired, as communicated by the Apostle Paul in Colossians 2:23.
Now under authoritarianism, the only form of genuine wealth will be diktat and the physical possession of gold, as the diktat money system becomes fully established enforcing austerity; where debt servitude schemes, are the order of the day and include such things as regional framework agreements, bank deposits bailins, new taxes, privatizations, capital controls, austerity measures, and statist vitalizations where banks and other corporations are given charter to operate as public private partnerships for regional economic security, regional stability and regional sustainability.
4) … Regional governance will arise out of the failure of nation investment as well as out of the collapse of the US Dollar and the Rise of the Petro Yuan
Deviant Investor provides the Bill Fleckenstein quote Money-printing cannot solve problems. It doesn’t really give us much gross domestic product growth, as we have seen. It hasn’t really helped on the employment front either, as job growth is meager (of course, it is also hampered by other government policies). What money-printing has accomplished is to push the stock market high enough to cause people to once again become delusional in their expectations” … and Deviant Investor relates To the extent we rely upon the fantasies of ever-increasing debt, money printing, and credit bubbles, we are vulnerable to financial collapses.
Nation Investment, EFA, is now peaking. Yet out of a soon coming Financial Armageddon, a global credit bust and worldwide financial system breakdown, foretold in Bible Prophecy of Revelation 13:3-4. regional governance will rise as leaders meet in summits to renounce national sovereignty and pool sovereignty regionally, for regional security, stability, security and sustainability.
Zero Hedge reports Canadian Billionaire Investor Ned Goodman in video report relates The dollar is about to be dethroned as the world’s de facto currency. The President and CEO of US $ 9.6 billion Dundee Capital markets sees the end of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency with the rise of the Petro Yuan, as China is replacing the USD with oil being traded in the Renminbi, that is the RMB, or Yuan, CYB. Dan Collins in Financial Sense writes Rise of the PetroYuan. No more King Dollar.
US Dollar hegemony accelerated when massive money printing took place after 2001. As the U.S. government began buying its own bonds with money it printed to keep interest rates low for the domestic market, it dropped the bond yields of countries like Saudi Arabia and China, reinforcing the petro-dollar as a means of global growth and trade.
Now, history is being written in the East, and the petro-yuan will be a driving factor in the rise of the king of the east, who presented in Bible prophecy, will come with a 200 million man army to the Battle of Armageddon.
5) … A Soon Coming Global Credit Bust And Financial System Breakdown Will Lead To The Establishment Of a New Global Religion, Specifically A One World Religion Unifying Mankind.
Libertarian Dr. Ron Paul keynoted the Fatima Center conference “Fatima: The Path to Peace”, held in Niagara Falls, Ontario, Canada on September 8-13, 2013. Other speakers included John McManus, president of the John Birch Society, and William F. Jasper, senior editor of the JBS publication New American. John McManus’ presentation was titled “We’re being led to a one world government and a one world religion”.
It was Milton Friedman who received the Nobel Peace Prize for his Free To Choose economic doctrine that provided Liberalism’s bedrock floating currency regime and which served as the basis for interventionist policies of monetary inflation by the world central banks. Out of the ruin of a soon coming global credit bust and financial system breakdown, a world sovereign, that is a world leader, and a world seignior, that is a top dog banker who takes a cut, will unify the world in the establishment of a one world religion establishing Authoritarianism’s beast regime of diktat.
The first attempt to establish a one world religion was by humans coming together with a single language and migrating from the east, that is the land of Shinar to build the Tower of Babel, Genesis 11. Mitt Vittnesbord writes on the emergence of a one world religion. The word Babel is from the Hebrew Ba-bhel, from Akkadian ba-b-ilu “gate of god.” Bab is the semitic word for gateway or portal and el means deity or god. So Bab-il means gate or portal to god. These people were attempting to unite into a powerful ecumenical force.
Francisco Toro of Caracas Chronicles writes of a state religion in Journey into the heart of Chavista Chronicles. Because chavismo, deep-down, isn’t really a political movement. Its essence is mystical, afro-caribbean, rooted in a form of spirituality that nobody in Germany has any kind of reference point for. What Hugo Chávez brought to Venezuela isn’t a “dictatorship” in any sense that would make sense to Erich Honecker or even Nicolae Ceaușescu. What we have is the takeover of the state, and much of the public sphere, by a new kind of religious cult that borrows heavily from the language of the political left to create a new devotional system.
I reply that those of apocalyptic vision, perceive that Bible Prophecy of Daniel 2:25-45, foretells of the soon coming of a Ten Toed Kingdom of regional governance, consisting of toes, that is regions, consisting of a miry mixture of iron diktat and clay democracy, which is synonymous with the Beast Regime of diktat and totalitarian collectivism, seen in Revelation 13:1-4, will arise out of a global credit bust and financial system breakdown, having its origins in the sovereign insolvency and banking insolvency of the Mediterranean Sea PIGS; the Beast Regime, which is replacing the Creature from Jekyll Island, will be popular with many, even to the extent that they will actually worship this monster, as presented in Revelation 13:3-4.
Through this soon coming financial apocalypse, the sovereignty and seigniorage of the nation state banker regime will fail and a fierce individual committed to policies of regional diktat, and schemes of debt servitude, will come to rise to rule the Eurozone, as foretold in bible prophecy of Daniel 8:23-25. This leader is also presented in Revelation 13:5-10, as the New Pharaoh, who will be accompanied by the New Prophet, Revelation 13:11-17, who will call for emperor worship, Daniel 9:25, and who will introduce the charagma money system, that is the 666 one world currency system, where all will be required to take the Mark, in order to buy or sell, Revelation 13:18.
John the Revelator in Revelation 13:4, foretells that people will worship the Dragon, that is Satan, Lucifer, the Devil, and the Beast as people will be so amazed of the economic recovery that comes through regional governance and totalitarian collectivism, that the trust engendered in the Beast Regime’s diktat, will be defined as worship.
Worship is one thing Satan has always wanted for himself, and he will receive it through the success of the Beast Regime, the Sovereign and the Segnior, as he imbues, and comes to occupy in all three. In Revelation 5, the Lamb is declared worthy to take the scroll and to “receive power and riches and wisdom, and strength and honor and glory and blessing.” But in Revelation 13, it is three Beasts, a Beast Regime, A Beast Ruler, and a Beast Prophet, who take the place of the Lamb and rule over mankind.
6) … A potential government shutdown looms for October 1, 2013
Andre Dimon of WSWS reports The House also passed a bill that would link continued government operations to the removal of funding for the Obama administration’s Affordable Care Act, setting the stage for a potential government shutdown on October 1.